Off-Balance-Sheet Accounting Change-So Near Yet So Far

Here is some very good news that contains an interesting twist. According to Bloomberg.com, FASB is close to announcing rule changes that will force banks to severely limit off-balance-sheet accounting. The twist is that it will not be implemented until next year:

 FASB ‘Pretty Close’ on Off-Balance-Sheet Rule Change, Herz Says
 
By Ian Katz
April 30 (Bloomberg) — The Financial Accounting Standards Board is “pretty close” to approving rules on off-balance- sheet accounting that will force banks to add billions of dollars of assets to their books, Chairman Robert Herz said.
Rules letting companies keep assets including mortgages and credit-card receivables off their balance sheets “were stretched,” Herz said today at an accounting conference at Baruch College in New York. The changes would take effect next year, he said.
U.S. bank regulators conducting stress tests on 19 banks calculated that the financial institutions would record $900 billion in off-balance-sheet assets in 2010, according to an April 24 Federal Reserve report.
In July, FASB postponed by at least a year the effective date of the changes after banks including Citigroup Inc. and trade groups complained. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association and the American Securitization Forum said the measure may make companies appear to be short of capital during regulatory reviews.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ian Katz in New York at ikatz2@bloomberg
 
 
If banks were forced to recognize these off-balance-sheet items immediately, it would undermine the confidence in the banks, but is delaying the implementation just going to stretch out the recovery period? Would we be better off letting the affected institutions face the music right away? Personally, I think the banks have enough to deal with at the moment with problem credit card and commercial RE loans. By the time they need to recognize the off-balance-sheet items, I believe they will be in much better financial condition.
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As Banks Try to Shore Up Their Balance Sheets With Profits, How Much Risk is Too Much?

 It is clear that the recession that we are in is largely due to the excessive risks that banks were taking on (and off) their balance sheets.  While some banks have become more risk averse as a result, Goldman Sachs continues its aggressive proprietary trading practices.  According to Bloomberg.com:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., unbowed by the securities industry’s worst year since the Great Depression, increased its trading bets at the fastest rate on Wall Street.
Goldman Sachs’s so-called value-at-risk, the amount the New York-based bank estimates it could lose from trading in a day, jumped 22 percent to $240 million in the first quarter, twice what Morgan Stanley stands to lose, company reports show. VaR climbed 2.8 percent in the same period at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and dropped 14 percent at Credit Suisse Group AG.
Offense beat defense in the first three months of 2009 as Goldman Sachs reported record revenue of $9.4 billion, dwarfing Morgan Stanley’s $3.04 billion. Since Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the two biggest U.S. securities firms, converted into banks in September, Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer John J. Mack has reduced proprietary trading and principal investing to focus on the firm’s role as a financial adviser and broker.[1]

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Are the Bank’s Profits Really Good News?

 Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America all recently announced earnings that far exceeded analyst’s estimates- Halleluiah! But wait a minute, where did those profits come from? The answer is: trading. But didn’t trading losses help create this mess to begin with? This underscores a fundamental problem with our financial institutions- an inordinate amount of earning power is concentrated in a few small profit centers. These profit centers employ traders and money managers whose skills allow them to theoretically make huge profits and amass enormous bonuses, and that creates an incentive to take on excessive risks.

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Carl Icahn to Shareholders: When it Comes to Incentive Comp, Just Say No

 Legendary investor and shareholder rights activist Carl Icahn wrote an article that appears in the Huffington Post, and on his Blog The Icahn Report- “It’s Up to the Shareholders, Not the Government, to Demand Change at a Company.” In this excellent article, Mr. Icahn describes how he addressed the issue of retention bonuses at a company that he was saving from bankruptcy:

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When the Going Gets Tough, The Tough Try One More Time

While tenacity is always a trait of successful individuals, in difficult economic environments like these it is even more important than ever. In The “Just One More” Solution,” John Baldoni tells about a friend that made sixty-two phone calls over a sixteen month period to a prospect before he got a meeting and landed the account. He goes on to describe the “one more” solution:

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SEC Chief Shapiro Discusses Heightened Rating Agency Oversight


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Goldman Sachs CEO to Wall Street: “We have to recognize a higher responsibility”

 Last week, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein delivered a speech to the Council of Institutional Investors, and I was encouraged by much of what he had to say. Market Watch posted a full text of the speech, and here are some of the more interesting excerpts:

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Can The Financial Services Industry Finally Learn From Its Mistakes?

Over the past several months, I have been spending a great deal of time studying everything that I could find about the history of financial crises in the hopes of understanding how my beloved financial services industry could wreak such widespread havoc upon the global economy. One of the things that surprised me the most was how we, as an industry, have demonstrated a propensity to repeat the same mistakes over and over again. Winston Churchill’s assertion that “those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it” has never carried greater resonance. In an excellent article on Bloomberg.com, Simon Clark discusses a warehouse of documents that Barclays Plc maintains that:

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SEC Advances 5 Uptick Rule Proposals for Public Comment

 The SEC has put forth 5 proposals for reinstating some sort of uptick rule on short selling stocks:

1.       Simply reinstate the uptick rule that was struck down in 2007.
2.       Require a bid of at least a penny more than the previous sale (versus a sale above the current previous sale).
3.       Ban short selling for the day on a security that has experienced a 10% decline.
4.       Reinstate the previous uptick rule for the day on a security that has experienced a 10% decline.
5.       Allow a short sale only at a price higher than the highest available bid on a security that has experienced a 10% decline.
 
Which option do you think is best (or do you want none of the above)?  For the record- I support reinstating the rule as it was.
 
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Ending the Financial Crisis: A Call to Action

 On March 23 and 24, The Wall Street Journal sponsored the Future of Finance Initiative to discuss how to restructure the financial system to avoid the kind of economic crisis that we are now experiencing. The panel of nearly 100 participants included ex-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, ex-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, financiers George Soros and Stephen Schwartzman, and Nobel Prize winner Myron Scholes. The group published “A Call to Action” that documents “20 principles for rebuilding the financial system”.  Here is a brief synopsis of the 20 principles:

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‘Mark’ Rule Change May Impair Treasury Plan- But is That Bad?

 On Thursday, the Financial Accounting Standards Board is voting on FAS 157-e, which would allow banks to use their own judgment in valuing assets if there are no bidders for those assets. Some bankers and accounting experts believe that this rule change would undermine the Treasury’s plan to get the banks sell up to $1 trillion of these assets to a fund that combines private and public financing. According to the Wall Street Journal:

That seems to run counter to the Treasury plan, which could spend up to $1 trillion to remove impaired assets from banks’ balance sheets. There is strong Wall Street support for Treasury’s program, with some investors advocating a complete cleanup of assets via the Treasury program.
 
"There is a disconnect there between the two plans," said analyst Robert Willens, who follows tax and accounting issues for the Willens Report. "Arguably, this new FASB rule will actually inhibit people from doing what the Treasury secretary would like them to do, which is sell the toxic assets. There is a little bit of the lack of coordination between the two concepts."[1] 

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Causes of the Financial Crisis Part 8: Overconfidence in Quantitative Risk Management

 

In 1973, Fischer Black and Myron Scholes wrote a paper, “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities” that introduced the Black-Scholes formula. Robert C. Merton then expanded the mathematics of the formula and called it the Black-Scholes options pricing model.  Given certain assumptions in the equity markets, Black and Scholes showed that the value of an option is determined solely by the stock price and time to expiration- “Thus it is possible to create a hedge position, consisting of a long position in the stock and a short position in [calls on the underlying stock], whose value will not depend on the price of the stock.”[1] This started Wall Street’s love affair with sophisticated quantitative analysis to formulate trading and hedging strategies.

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Causes of the Financial Crisis Part 7: Financial Deregulation

 Over the last 30 years, there have been a number of laws passed that have deregulated the financial services industry. Many of these changes contributed positively to the industry, while others led to conditions that contributed, unwittingly, to the current financial crisis.

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Will Commercial RE Defaults be the Next Bank Shoe to Drop?

In the face of rising vacancy rates and commercial real estate prices falling nearly 20% in the past year, commercial mortgage defaults may be the next bump in the road for the recovery of U.S. banks. According to Bloomberg News:

The country’s 10 biggest banks have $327.6 billion in commercial mortgages, which face a wave of defaults as office vacancies grow and retailers and casinos go bankrupt. A projected tripling in the default rate would result in losses of about 7 percent of total unpaid balances, according to estimates from analysts at research firm Reis Inc.[1]
 
Wells Fargo and Bank of America could be especially hard hit since they hold about half of the commercial mortgages held by the 10 largest banks. While this would not be a favorable development, it should be a manageable situation and is not unexpected.
 


[1] Ari Levy and Daniel Taub, “Defaulting Commercial Properties Hit Banks on Vacancy-Rate Rise,” Bloomberg News, March 23, 2009.
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Finra Warns B-Ds Not to Let Cost Cutting Lead to Lax Oversight

 

In a letter to over 5,000 broker-dealers, Finra has warned against lax oversight due to cost cutting and layoffs. According to Investment News:
"In light of the challenging market conditions, firms are focusing on reducing expenses, according to the letter, which was signed by Robert C. Errico and Grace B. Vogel, executive vice presidents with the New York and Washington-based regulator. "This in many instances has taken the form of head count reductions throughout the organization."
"While firms maintain the discretion to determine the adequacy of head count, we recommend that they carefully consider the impact of head count reductions in such areas as compliance, finance and operations, and other control functions," the letter stated.[1]

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